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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 5
Baltimore Ravens 0 – Tennessee Titans 0
What Actually Happened
(12:13) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry left guard for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+4.26 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +6.10 EP
- 33% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 5, worth +0.50 EP
KICK
+1.94 EP
- 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.98 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.37 EP
PUNT
+0.23 EP
- Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.23 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
