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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 13 at the 83

Tennessee Titans 10 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(9:46) 3-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to BAL 29, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at BAL 25.

The Three Options

GO -2.92 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.35 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 83, worth -4.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

PUNT -2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 41, worth -2.02 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model