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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 5 at the 15

Tennessee Titans 7 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(6:55) 6-J.Slye 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-M.Cox, Holder-3-T.Townsend.

The Three Options

GO +1.63 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.33 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 15, worth -0.58 EP
KICK +1.40 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 25, worth -1.15 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model