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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 11 at the 36

Tennessee Titans 10 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(1:51) (Shotgun) 1-C.Ward pass deep left to 14-C.Tate to BAL 3 for 33 yards (24-M.Starks) [15-M.Green].

The Three Options

GO +0.64 EP
What Happened
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +3.43 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 36, worth -0.45 EP
KICK +1.61 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.62 EP
  • 32% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 46, worth -0.53 EP
PUNT -0.19 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.19 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.97 EP