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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 81

Baltimore Ravens 21 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(1:05) 30-R.Eckley punts 51 yards to TEN 30, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-38-K.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.66 EP
  • 41% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 81, worth -4.46 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.44 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 38, worth -1.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model