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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 3 at the 59

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 30-R.Eckley punts 50 yards to TEN 9, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 17-C.Dike.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 56% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 56, worth +2.53 EP
  • 44% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 59, worth -3.12 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.64 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 18, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.70 EP