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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 3 at the 78

Tennessee Titans 10 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(14:09) 3-T.Townsend punts 56 yards to BAL 22, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester pushed ob at BAL 22 for no gain (41-E.Hallett).

The Three Options

GO -1.62 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +0.82 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 78, worth -4.49 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.91 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model