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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 18 at the 55

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Tennessee Titans 7

What Actually Happened

(2:35) 30-R.Eckley punts 45 yards to TEN 10, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-C.Dike ran ob at TEN 30 for 20 yards (80-D.Smythe). PENALTY on TEN-41-E.Hallett, Offensive Holding, 7 yards, enforced at TEN 15.

The Three Options

GO -0.98 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.74 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 55, worth -2.75 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 16, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model