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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 10 at the 48

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(3:44) 30-R.Eckley punts 44 yards to TEN 4, Center-46-N.Moore. 17-C.Dike ran ob at TEN 14 for 10 yards (85-J.Cuevas).

The Three Options

GO -0.51 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.44 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 48, worth -2.63 EP
KICK -1.05 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.71 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 14, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model