Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tennessee Titans 4th & 10 at the 86

Tennessee Titans 10 – Baltimore Ravens 24

What Actually Happened

(2:10) 3-T.Townsend punts 54 yards to BAL 32, Center-46-M.Cox. 10-L.Wester to BAL 43 for 11 yards (36-J.Chestnut; 38-T.Burgess). PENALTY on TEN-21-M.Robinson, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 43.

The Three Options

GO -3.06 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.74 EP
65% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 86, worth -5.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (103 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model