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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 22

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(3:24) 33-T.Loop 40 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-30-R.Eckley.

The Three Options

GO +1.24 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.12 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.68 EP
KICK +1.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 32, worth -1.22 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model