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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 2 at the 2

Tennessee Titans 7 – Baltimore Ravens 14

What Actually Happened

(8:20) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 20-T.Pollard. 20-T.Pollard right guard to BAL 2 for no gain (92-N.Madubuike).

The Three Options

GO +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 51% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.13 EP
  • 49% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 2, worth +0.05 EP
KICK +1.15 EP
  • 99% chance to make a 19-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.18 EP
  • 1% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 21, worth -1.28 EP
PUNT -0.64 EP
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 11, worth -0.64 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model