4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 8 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(10:25) 30-R.Eckley punts 56 yards to end zone, Center-46-N.Moore, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.79 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 56, worth -2.93 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.85 EP
What Happened
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 17, worth -0.85 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model