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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 47

Tennessee Titans 7 – Baltimore Ravens 21

What Actually Happened

(1:46) 3-T.Townsend punts 35 yards to BAL 12, Center-46-M.Cox, downed by TEN-56-T.Jones.

The Three Options

GO -0.49 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 40, worth +3.04 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 47, worth -2.47 EP
KICK -0.96 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.78 EP
What Happened
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 13, worth -0.78 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model