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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 11 at the 53

Baltimore Ravens 24 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(:11) 30-R.Eckley punts 38 yards to TEN 15, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.83 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 42, worth +3.06 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 53, worth -2.84 EP
KICK -1.51 EP
  • 26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.79 EP
  • 74% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 15, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model