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Best Bets — Week 12

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

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TEN @

JAX

Model: JAX 84.3% · strong edge

QB edge to JAX: Trevor Lawrence (JAX) +0.284 vs Cam Ward (TEN) -0.072 EPA/dropback

KC @

BUF

Model: BUF 79.7% · strong edge

BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

NYJ @

MIA

Model: MIA 68.9% · clear edge

NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

NO @

CIN

Model: CIN 67.3% · clear edge

Joe Burrow (CIN): +0.209 EPA/dropback in prior starts

BAL @

HOU

Model: HOU 66.2% · clear edge

HOU defense: -0.144 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (6th in the league)

GB @

Model: LA 65.0% · clear edge

LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

NE @

LAC

Model: NE 62.3% · clear edge

Justin Herbert (LAC): -0.185 EPA/dropback in prior starts