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New England Patriots

4-2 HC Mike Vrabel
@
LAC Home

Los Angeles Chargers

0-6 HC Jim Harbaugh
Sunday 2026-11-29 · 20:20 ET SoFi Stadium, Inglewood US 🏟 Dome

Win Probability

NE
61.9%
LAC
38.1%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: slight edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • LAC offense: -0.124 EPA/play over its last 8 games (27th in the league)
  • NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • LAC defense: -0.089 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (8th in the league)
  • NE offense: +0.061 EPA/play over its last 8 games (6th in the league)
  • Justin Herbert (LAC): -0.130 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • NE on 7 more days rest than LAC
  • Indoors — weather neutralised

Predicted Final Score

NE 25 18–32
–
LAC 20 13–27
Projected margin: NE by 5 Projected total: 45

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 12

NE

No players on the report.

LAC

No players on the report.

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 12 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

Not played yet.