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Best Bets — Week 17

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

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WAS @

JAX

Model: JAX 76.8% · strong edge

Trevor Lawrence (JAX): +0.284 EPA/dropback in prior starts

DEN @

Model: NE 72.3% · strong edge

NE defense: -0.157 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (5th in the league)

BUF @

MIA

Model: BUF 70.1% · strong edge

BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

PHI @

Model: SF 69.4% · clear edge

QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.202 vs Tanner McKee (PHI) -0.101 EPA/dropback

BAL @

CIN

Model: CIN 65.9% · clear edge

QB edge to CIN: Joe Burrow (CIN) +0.209 vs Tyler Huntley (BAL) -0.010 EPA/dropback

LA @

Model: LA 65.9% · clear edge

LA offense: +0.179 EPA/play over its last 8 games (1st in the league)

HOU @

Model: GB 64.9% · clear edge

GB offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)