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Best Bets — Week 3

This week's most confident calls: every game at 'clear edge' or better (see Track Record), sorted by how favored the pick is. Not the same as Value Picks -- this is how sure the model is of its own number, regardless of what the betting line says.

See the Full Track Record →

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NYJ @

DET

Model: DET 83.6% · strong edge

NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)

LAC @

BUF

Model: BUF 82.0% · strong edge

BUF offense: +0.157 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)

LV @

Model: NO 70.9% · strong edge

LV offense: -0.230 EPA/play over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

TEN @

NYG

Model: NYG 70.8% · strong edge

TEN offense: -0.136 EPA/play over its last 8 games (29th in the league)

ARI @

Model: SF 70.4% · strong edge

SF offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)

ATL @

Model: GB 68.2% · clear edge

GB offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)

NE @

JAX

Model: JAX 62.3% · clear edge

JAX defense: -0.160 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)