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Arizona Cardinals

1-2 HC Jonathan Gannon
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San Francisco 49ers

3-0 HC Kyle Shanahan
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 16:05 ET Levi's Stadium, Santa Clara US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

ARI
29.6%
SF
70.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • SF offense: +0.041 EPA/play over its last 8 games (11th in the league)
  • SF defense: +0.035 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • QB edge to SF: Brock Purdy (SF) +0.188 vs Jacoby Brissett (ARI) -0.018 EPA/dropback
  • ARI defense: +0.195 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (31st in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ARI 22 15–29
–
SF 26 19–33
Projected margin: SF by 4 Projected total: 48

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

ARI

Dadrion Taylor-Demerson S Out Back
Roy Lopez DT Questionable Groin
Max Melton CB Questionable Toe

SF

Demarcus Robinson WR Out Ankle
Nick Bosa DE Out Knee
James Thompson Jr. DT Out Ankle
Romello Height DE Out Hand
Mike Evans WR Questionable Hip

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ARI 30
–
SF 36

Prediction missed by 2 pts on margin, 18 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 08:40 TD SF (8:40) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass short left to 5-M.Evans to SF 20 for 2 yards. Lateral to 19-D.Samuel for 80 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – SF 6
  • Q2 15:00 TD SF (15:00) (Shotgun) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 5-M.Evans for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 0 – SF 13
  • Q2 03:08 FG ARI (3:08) 38-C.Ryland 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 3 – SF 14
  • Q2 00:27 FG ARI (:27) 38-C.Ryland 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 6 – SF 14
  • Q2 00:04 FG SF (:04) 18-E.Pineiro 57 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-15-C.Waitman. PENALTY on ARI-56-D.Robinson, Unnecessary Roughness, 15 yards, enforced between downs. ARI 6 – SF 17
  • Q3 11:10 TD SF (11:10) 23-C.McCaffrey up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 6 – SF 23
  • Q3 03:07 TD ARI (3:07) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 14-Mi.Wilson for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 12 – SF 23
  • Q4 13:10 TD ARI (13:10) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 4-J.Love for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 19 – SF 23
  • Q4 08:46 TD SF (8:46) 13-B.Purdy pass short middle to 85-G.Kittle for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 20 – SF 29
  • Q4 02:55 TD ARI (2:55) (No Huddle) 7-J.Brissett up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on SF-92-O.Odighizuwa, Defensive Offside, declined. ARI 26 – SF 29
  • Q4 01:36 TD SF (1:36) 13-B.Purdy pass deep right to 85-G.Kittle for 20 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ARI 27 – SF 35
  • Q4 00:39 FG ARI (:39) 38-C.Ryland 49 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin. ARI 30 – SF 36

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 ARI 4th & 15 at the 41
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 57%

    (9:27) 12-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ARI 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (5:18) 12-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to SF 7, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 9 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:18) 12-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to SF 7, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 4-J.Cowing to SF 14 for 7 yards (25-Z.Collins).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 5 at the 81
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (11:24) 15-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to ARI 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 38 for 10 yards (51-L.Gifford).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 1 at the 16
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 67% p(FG) 95%

    (5:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 9 for 7 yards (54-F.Warner; 25-J.Jones).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 8 at the 8
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 98%

    (3:08) 38-C.Ryland 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 SF 4th & 10 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 27%

    (1:41) 15-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to ARI 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-53-J.Dugger.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ARI 4th & 14 at the 23
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26% p(FG) 90%

    (:27) 38-C.Ryland 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 57% p(FG) 87%

    (6:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 21 for 5 yards (0-R.Green; 20-U.Stout).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 SF 4th & 4 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54%

    (1:06) 15-C.Waitman punts 57 yards to ARI 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 24 for 10 yards (33-S.Neal).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 ARI 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37%

    (:41) 12-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to SF 30, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 33-S.Neal MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ARI-80-S.Fehoko at SF 28.

    See the full breakdown →