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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 4 at the 71

San Francisco 49ers 23 – Arizona Cardinals 13

What Actually Happened

(1:06) 15-C.Waitman punts 57 yards to ARI 14, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-D.Duvernay pushed ob at ARI 24 for 10 yards (33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
Model's Pick
  • 54% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +1.83 EP
  • 46% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 71, worth -3.83 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

PUNT -0.81 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 29, worth -0.81 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model