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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 14 at the 23

Arizona Cardinals 3 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(:27) 38-C.Ryland 41 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.05 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +4.94 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.34 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 33, worth -0.75 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model