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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 7 at the 56

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 7

What Actually Happened

(5:18) 12-B.Gillikin punts 49 yards to SF 7, Center-59-C.Kreiter, fair catch by 4-J.Cowing.

The Three Options

GO -1.05 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.26 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 56, worth -3.28 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -1.15 EP
What Happened
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 17, worth -1.15 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model