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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 10 at the 53

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 3

What Actually Happened

(1:41) 15-C.Waitman punts 35 yards to ARI 18, Center-46-J.Weeks, downed by SF-53-J.Dugger.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.15 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 53, worth -2.46 EP
KICK -1.17 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 49, worth -2.27 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 15, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model