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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 16

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(5:07) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 9 for 7 yards (54-F.Warner; 25-J.Jones).

The Three Options

GO +2.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 15, worth +4.64 EP
  • 33% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 16, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.37 EP
  • 95% chance to make a 33-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.51 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.17 EP
PUNT -0.26 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model