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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 15 at the 41

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 0

What Actually Happened

(9:27) 12-B.Gillikin punts 41 yards to end zone, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.17 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.49 EP
KICK -0.69 EP
  • 57% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.08 EP
  • 43% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 49, worth -3.08 EP
PUNT -0.66 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model