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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 San Francisco 49ers 4th & 5 at the 81

San Francisco 49ers 14 – Arizona Cardinals 0

What Actually Happened

(11:24) 15-C.Waitman punts 53 yards to ARI 28, Center-46-J.Weeks. 81-D.Duvernay to ARI 38 for 10 yards (51-L.Gifford).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.20 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 81, worth -4.48 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (98 yards).

PUNT -1.71 EP
What Happened
  • Arizona Cardinals would take over around their own 38, worth -1.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model