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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 26

Arizona Cardinals 6 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(6:20) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 14-Mi.Wilson to SF 21 for 5 yards (0-R.Green; 20-U.Stout).

The Three Options

GO +2.02 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.37 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP
KICK +1.07 EP
  • 87% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.53 EP
  • 13% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.14 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model