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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 8 at the 8

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14

What Actually Happened

(3:08) 38-C.Ryland 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-59-C.Kreiter, Holder-12-B.Gillikin.

The Three Options

GO +1.52 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +5.47 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 8, worth -0.36 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 25-yard field goal: 3 points, then San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.79 EP
PUNT -0.39 EP
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model