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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 10 at the 76

Arizona Cardinals 13 – San Francisco 49ers 23

What Actually Happened

(:41) 12-B.Gillikin punts 46 yards to SF 30, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 33-S.Neal MUFFS catch, RECOVERED by ARI-80-S.Fehoko at SF 28.

The Three Options

GO -2.43 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.06 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.47 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.86 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • San Francisco 49ers would take over around their own 34, worth -1.86 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model