Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 9 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 0 – San Francisco 49ers 14

(12:18) 12-B.Gillikin punts 63 yards to SF 7, Center-59-C.Kreiter. 4-J.Cowing to SF 14 for 7 yards (25-Z.Collins).

The Three Options

GO -1.82 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.67 EP
62% chance to fail: San Francisco 49ers takes over around their own 70, worth -3.95 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model