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Atlanta Falcons

1-2 HC Raheem Morris
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Green Bay Packers

1-2 HC Matt LaFleur
Thursday 2026-09-24 · 20:15 ET Lambeau Field, Green Bay US ☀️ Clear Spread 4.5 O/U 43.5

Win Probability

ATL
31.8%
GB
68.2%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: clear edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • GB offense: +0.102 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.049 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (21st in the league)
  • Jordan Love (GB): +0.180 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • ATL offense: +0.018 EPA/play over its last 8 games (13th in the league)

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

ATL 23 16–30
–
GB 27 20–34
Projected margin: GB by 4 Projected total: 50

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

ATL

Samson Ebukam DE Out Hamstring
Billy Bowman Jr. CB Questionable Achilles

GB

Aaron Banks G Out Knee
Zach Bako-Bewele T Out Knee
Jayden Reed WR Out Neck
Warren Brinson DT Out Calf
Javon Hargrave DT Questionable Knee
Anthony Campbell DT Questionable Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

ATL 35
–
GB 14

Prediction missed by 25 pts on margin, 1 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 05:17 TD GB (5:17) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 9-C.Watson for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 0 – GB 6
  • Q1 01:35 TD ATL (1:35) 7-Bi.Robinson left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 6 – GB 7
  • Q2 04:53 FG ATL (4:53) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. ATL 10 – GB 7
  • Q2 01:02 TD ATL (1:02) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 81-A.Hooper for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 16 – GB 7
  • Q3 03:41 TD ATL (3:41) 71-J.Taylor reported in as eligible. 15-Br.Robinson left guard for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 23 – GB 7
  • Q4 11:00 FG ATL (11:00) 6-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey. ATL 27 – GB 7
  • Q4 08:21 TD GB (8:21) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 0-M.Golden for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 27 – GB 13
  • Q4 03:35 TD ATL (3:35) 62-C.Levin and 72-M.Jerrell reported in as eligible. 7-Bi.Robinson left guard for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. ATL 33 – GB 14

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 GB 4th & 9 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (12:45) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to ATL 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 17 for 4 yards (16-B.Melton; 59-T.Hopper).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 ATL 4th & 11 at the 74
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (10:15) 16-J.Bailey punts 61 yards to GB 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 52%

    (15:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 64 yards to ATL -1, Center-42-M.Orzech. 17-Z.Branch pushed ob at ATL 17 for 18 yards (59-T.Hopper).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 6 at the 41
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 56%

    (10:41) 16-J.Bailey punts 30 yards to GB 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 88
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (9:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 52 yards to ATL 36, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 ATL 4th & 2 at the 26
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 86%

    (4:53) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 84%

    (3:47) 28-T.Smack 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-Z.Harrison), Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 GB 4th & 2 at the 59
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 63%

    (:38) 19-D.Whelan punts 48 yards to ATL 11, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 7
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 98%

    (10:02) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 9-C.Watson.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q3 GB 4th & 16 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 27%

    (1:02) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to ATL 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 ATL 4th & 7 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 96%

    (11:00) 6-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 7 at the 39
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 62%

    (9:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 23-S.Moore to ATL 29 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 GB 4th & 6 at the 40 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 59%

    (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 87-J.Sturdivant to ATL 30 for 10 yards (21-M.Hughes).

    See the full breakdown →