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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 6 at the 41

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(10:41) 16-J.Bailey punts 30 yards to GB 11, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.58 EP
  • 59% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 41, worth -2.15 EP
KICK -0.42 EP
  • 56% chance to make a 58-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.47 EP
  • 44% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.88 EP
PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP