Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 11 at the 74

Atlanta Falcons 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(10:15) 16-J.Bailey punts 61 yards to GB 13, Center-49-L.McCullough, fair catch by 23-S.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -2.40 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.55 EP
64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 74, worth -4.60 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (91 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model