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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 16 at the 53

Green Bay Packers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 24

What Actually Happened

(1:02) 19-D.Whelan punts 45 yards to ATL 8, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 14-O.Zaccheaus.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.57 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 53, worth -2.86 EP
KICK -1.49 EP
  • 27% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.78 EP
  • 73% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -2.68 EP
PUNT -0.51 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 15, worth -0.51 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model