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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 6 at the 40

Green Bay Packers 14 – Atlanta Falcons 35

What Actually Happened

(1:56) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short right to 87-J.Sturdivant to ATL 30 for 10 yards (21-M.Hughes).

The Three Options

GO +0.38 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +2.83 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 40, worth -1.42 EP
KICK +0.42 EP
Model's Pick
  • 59% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.94 EP
  • 41% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 49, worth -1.76 EP
PUNT -0.49 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.49 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model