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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 7 at the 13

Atlanta Falcons 24 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(11:00) 6-N.Folk 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +1.60 EP
Model's Pick
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.47 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.53 EP
KICK +1.42 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.52 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.13 EP
PUNT -0.36 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model