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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Green Bay Packers 4th & 7 at the 39

Green Bay Packers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 27

What Actually Happened

(9:29) (Shotgun) 10-J.Love pass short middle to 23-S.Moore to ATL 29 for 10 yards (31-X.Watts).

The Three Options

GO +0.36 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 32, worth +3.79 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 39, worth -1.90 EP
KICK +0.01 EP
  • 62% chance to make a 56-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 48, worth -2.61 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model