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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 63

Green Bay Packers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 19-D.Whelan punts 64 yards to ATL -1, Center-42-M.Orzech. 17-Z.Branch pushed ob at ATL 17 for 18 yards (59-T.Hopper).

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.06 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 63, worth -3.43 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.73 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model