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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q3
Green Bay Packers
4th & 1 at the 7
Green Bay Packers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 17
What Actually Happened
(10:02) 10-J.Love pass incomplete short right to 9-C.Watson.
The Three Options
GO
+3.88 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 6, worth +5.63 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 7, worth +0.24 EP
KICK
+1.70 EP
- 98% chance to make a 24-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
- 2% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 21, worth -0.54 EP
PUNT
+0.07 EP
- Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
