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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 88

Green Bay Packers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 7

What Actually Happened

(9:42) 19-D.Whelan punts 52 yards to ATL 36, Center-42-M.Orzech, fair catch by 17-Z.Branch.

The Three Options

GO -2.47 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 79, worth +0.96 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 88, worth -4.94 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (105 yards).

PUNT -2.56 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 46, worth -2.56 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model