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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 5 at the 28

Green Bay Packers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 10

What Actually Happened

(3:47) 28-T.Smack 47 yard field goal is BLOCKED (96-Z.Harrison), Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.

The Three Options

GO +1.27 EP
Model's Pick
  • 44% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 23, worth +4.36 EP
  • 56% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 28, worth -1.15 EP
KICK +1.03 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 45-yard field goal: 3 points, then Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.57 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 38, worth -1.78 EP
PUNT -0.46 EP
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 11, worth -0.46 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model