4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Green Bay Packers 4th & 2 at the 59

Green Bay Packers 7 – Atlanta Falcons 17

What Actually Happened

(:38) 19-D.Whelan punts 48 yards to ATL 11, Center-42-M.Orzech, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 57, worth +1.25 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 59, worth -1.98 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.35 EP
What Happened
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 18, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP