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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Green Bay Packers 4th & 9 at the 54

Green Bay Packers 0 – Atlanta Falcons 0

What Actually Happened

(12:45) 19-D.Whelan punts 41 yards to ATL 13, Center-42-M.Orzech. 14-O.Zaccheaus to ATL 17 for 4 yards (16-B.Melton; 59-T.Hopper).

The Three Options

GO -0.44 EP
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 45, worth +3.41 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Atlanta Falcons takes over around their own 54, worth -2.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Atlanta Falcons would take over around their own 16, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model