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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Atlanta Falcons 4th & 2 at the 26

Atlanta Falcons 7 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(4:53) 6-N.Folk 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-L.McCullough, Holder-16-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.01 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 24, worth +4.21 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 26, worth -1.02 EP
KICK +1.13 EP
What Happened
  • 86% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +1.59 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.79 EP
PUNT -0.17 EP
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.17 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.88 EP