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New York Jets

1-2 HC Aaron Glenn
@
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Detroit Lions

2-1 HC Dan Campbell
Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00 ET Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread 7.0 O/U 49.5

Win Probability

NYJ
16.4%
DET
83.6%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: strong edge Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the full track record.

Key Insights

  • NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.173 vs Geno Smith (NYJ) -0.108 EPA/dropback
  • NYJ defense: +0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET on 3 more days rest than NYJ

New to these stats? NFL 101 Glossary →

Predicted Final Score

NYJ 18 11–25
–
DET 28 21–35
Projected margin: DET by 10 Projected total: 46

The range under each score is this model's typical error on unseen games — ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat the bigger number as the middle of that range, not a precise call — see the full track record.

Injury Report — Week 3

NYJ

Minkah Fitzpatrick S Out Groin
Francisco Mauigoa LB Out Quadricep
Mason Taylor TE Out Thumb
Kene Nwangwu RB Doubtful Back
Joseph Ossai DE Questionable Foot
Adonai Mitchell WR Questionable Finger

DET

Ben Bartch G Out Foot
Thomas Harper S Out Ankle

Pulled fresh for 2026 week 3 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

NYJ 24
–
DET 31

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q2 09:38 FG DET (9:38) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. NYJ 0 – DET 3
  • Q2 05:40 TD NYJ (5:40) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 16-K.Sadiq for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 6 – DET 3
  • Q2 01:40 TD DET (1:40) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – DET 9
  • Q3 11:06 TD DET (11:06) 0-J.Gibbs right end for 17 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 7 – DET 16
  • Q3 06:26 FG NYJ (6:26) 19-J.Sanders 42 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-T.Hennessy, Holder-14-A.McNamara. NYJ 10 – DET 17
  • Q4 15:00 TD DET (15:00) 50-S.Gill-Howard and 79-L.Borom reported in as eligible. 0-J.Gibbs up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 10 – DET 23
  • Q4 11:21 TD NYJ (11:21) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 89-J.Ruckert for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 16 – DET 24
  • Q4 04:11 TD NYJ (4:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson to DET 1 for 22 yards (4-D.Reed). Penalty on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. NYJ 22 – DET 24
  • Q4 02:30 TD DET (2:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 0-J.Gibbs for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NYJ 24 – DET 30

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 1 at the 60
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.29 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (12:54) 14-A.McNamara punts 47 yards to DET 13, Center-42-T.Hennessy, fair catch by 85-T.Kennedy.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DET 4th & 17 at the 52
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 33%

    (8:21) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to NYJ 9, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-17-T.Martin.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 NYJ 4th & 9 at the 55
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (2:26) 14-A.McNamara punts 26 yards to DET 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-27-M.Moore.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q1 DET 4th & 19 at the 62
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (:23) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to NYJ 20, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 NYJ 4th & 15 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29%

    (15:00) 14-A.McNamara punts 57 yards to DET 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 39 for 11 yards (37-Q.Stiggers). ** Injury Update: NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers has returned to the game.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 8 at the 12
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 97%

    (9:38) 39-J.Bates 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q2 DET 4th & 2 at the 9
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 58% p(FG) 98%

    (1:47) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 18-I.TeSlaa to NYJ 4 for 5 yards (8-A.Cisco).

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 DET 4th & 1 at the 45
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 73% p(FG) 50%

    (8:37) 0-J.Gibbs left tackle to NYJ 45 for no gain (52-K.Enagbare). Penalty on DET, Illegal Formation, declined.

    See the full breakdown →
  • Q4 NYJ 4th & 6 at the 23 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 91%

    (4:11) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson to DET 1 for 22 yards (4-D.Reed). Penalty on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. New York Jets challenged the short of the goal line ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass deep right to 5-G.Wilson for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on DET-4-D.Reed, Defensive Pass Interference, declined.

    See the full breakdown →