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Sunday 2026-09-27 · 13:00
Ford Field, Detroit US
🏟 Dome
Spread 9.5
O/U 45.5
Win Probability
Dome
Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- NYJ offense: -0.229 EPA/play over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
- QB edge to DET: Jared Goff (DET) +0.123 vs Geno Smith (NYJ) -0.200 EPA/dropback
- NYJ defense: +0.224 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
- DET defense: +0.062 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (24th in the league)
- Indoors — weather neutralised
- DET on 3 more days rest than NYJ
Predicted Final Score
NYJ
17
–
DET
28
Projected margin: DET by 11
Projected total: 45
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 3
No injury report available yet for the 2026 season.
Actual Result
Not played yet.