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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 17 at the 52

Detroit Lions 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 3-J.Fox punts 43 yards to NYJ 9, Center-49-H.Hatten, downed by DET-17-T.Martin.

The Three Options

GO -0.71 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.94 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 52, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -0.99 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 69-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 30 after the kickoff, worth +2.04 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.49 EP
PUNT -0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 15, worth -0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model