Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New York Jets 4th & 15 at the 85

New York Jets 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 14-A.McNamara punts 57 yards to DET 28, Center-42-T.Hennessy. 85-T.Kennedy to DET 39 for 11 yards (37-Q.Stiggers). ** Injury Update: NYJ-37-Q.Stiggers has returned to the game.

The Three Options

GO -3.34 EP

29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.05 EP
71% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 85, worth -5.10 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model