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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 19 at the 62

Detroit Lions 0 – New York Jets 0

What Actually Happened

(:23) 3-J.Fox punts 42 yards to NYJ 20, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 18-I.Williams.

The Three Options

GO -1.39 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.23 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 62, worth -3.20 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (79 yards).

PUNT -0.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 21, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model