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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 9 at the 55

New York Jets 0 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(2:26) 14-A.McNamara punts 26 yards to DET 29, Center-42-T.Hennessy, downed by NYJ-27-M.Moore.

The Three Options

GO -1.25 EP
  • 33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +2.75 EP
  • 67% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 55, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (72 yards).

PUNT -1.00 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 16, worth -1.00 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model